JERUSALEM (AP) — Israel was counting votes Wednesday in pivotal elections where no clear winner emerged in exit polls — a scenario that is shining a light on the country’s complex political system.
With 70% of the votes tallied, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu ’s Likud party appeared to be pulling ahead as the largest in the Knesset, Israel’s parliament. But the long-serving Israeli leader could still be short of the parliamentary majority he needs to govern.
Exit polls suggested Netanyahu’s opponents had secured enough seats to form a government. But with many of them resistant to sharing power with Arab-led parties — which may be headed to a historic showing — their path toward a coalition isn’t straightforward.
That leaves the country in a state of political limbo until coalition negotiations get underway and the picture of which party is prepared to join what type of government becomes clearer.
Israelis vote for parties and not candidates, and no single party has ever won an outright 61-seat majority in the Knesset, meaning political leaders must forge coalitions to govern.
If no party succeeds in building a coalition, new elections could be called.
Here’s a look at the process.
Israeli broadcasters release exit polls
Shortly after polls closed Tuesday at 10 p.m., Israel’s three main television broadcasters released exit polls estimating how many seats were won by each party.
They suggested Netanyahu’s bloc and that of his chief rival, retired general Gadi Eisenkot, were in a close race, with the Arab parties earning about 18 seats. Preliminary results Wednesday showed Netanyahu’s camp pulling ahead, but still short of a parliamentary majority.
The exit polls usually provide a good indication of how people have voted. But they also could vary and may not be borne out by the official results which were expected to become clear over the coming days.
The Associated Press calls thousands of elections in the United States, but doesn’t declare winners in foreign elections.
Party leaders negotiate
If, as expected, neither coalition pulls off a clear victory, then the coming weeks will see intense negotiations and bargaining among party leaders as they try to get to 61 seats.
Israel’s largely ceremonial president, Isaac Herzog, will hold consultations with all the party leaders after the election and ask the candidate who appears most likely to form a coalition to do so. If that candidate is unable to assemble a majority within a maximum of six weeks, then others could be given a shot.
The process gives outsized power to smaller parties that can often provide a crucial margin. The leaders of the bigger parties typically woo them with promises of Cabinet positions, budgets or specific policies.
This election could in theory be decided by Arab-led parties.
Both Netanyahu and Eisenkot have so far ruled out any partnership with them. But they could allow Eisenkot to form a minority government by backing him from outside the coalition or even just abstaining from the Knesset vote to seat the next government.
Eisenkot could also decide to join a unity government led by Netanyahu, but that would violate a major campaign promise he made to voters.
Gridlock would lead to another election
If, after all the negotiations, no one is able to form a coalition, a new election would be held in the next few months and the process would repeat itself.
Netanyahu’s government would remain as a caretaker, and public services wouldn’t be affected. But it would lack the authority to enact major policy changes.
Even another election may not resolve matters.
The last national election held in Israel, in November 2022, was the fifth in 3½ years.
By TIA GOLDENBERG and JOSEPH KRAUSS
Associated Press
