What to know about the growing conflict between Israel and Lebanon’s Hezbollah
CAIRO (AP) — Since mid-September, there has been a dizzying escalation in the nearly yearlong conflict between Israel and Lebanon’s Hezbollah.
First came two days of exploding pagers and walkie-talkies used by Hezbollah — attacks pinned on Israel that killed at least 39 people and maimed thousands more.
Hezbollah’s leader vowed to retaliate, and on Sept. 20 the militant group launched a wave of rockets into northern Israel. Since then, both sides have fired dozens of rockets on a daily basis, forcing hundreds of thousands of Israelis in the north to huddle in air raid shelters, and prompting tens of thousands of people to flee their homes in parts of southern Lebanon where Hezbollah has a strong presence.
The International Organization for Migration estimated Thursday that more than 200,000 people have been displaced by the conflict in Lebanon, including more than 100,000 who were displaced before the recent escalation. Lebanon’s General Security agency said more than 31,000 people crossed the border from Lebanon into Syria in two days.
Lebanon said Israeli strikes Monday killed more than 560 Lebanese and injured almost 2,000 in the deadliest attack since the 2006 Israel-Hezbollah war. Several Hezbollah leaders have been targeted in the attacks, including the commander of its most elite unit, who was killed in a strike in Beirut.
Israel and Hezbollah have launched repeated strikes against each other since the Israel-Hamas war began, but both sides have pulled back when the spiral of reprisals appeared on the verge of getting out of control, under heavy pressure from the U.S. and its allies. In recent weeks, however, Israeli leaders have warned of a possible bigger military operation to stop attacks from Lebanon and allow hundreds of thousands of Israelis displaced by the fighting to return to homes near the border.
Here are some things to know about the situation:
What were the latest strikes?
The Israeli military said Thursday that it killed a Hezbollah drone commander in an airstrike on an apartment building in the suburbs of the Lebanese capital.
Hezbollah has not commented on Israel’s claim that the strike killed Mohammed Hussein Surour, but the Lebanese Health Ministry said two people were killed and 15 were wounded in the attack in Beirut.
Hezbollah TV station Al-Manar reported there had been an Israeli airstrike in Dahiyeh, the mainly Shiite suburb where Hezbollah has a strong presence, and it showed images of a damaged apartment building.
Lebanon’s disaster risk management unit said Thursday that Israeli strikes killed 60 people in Lebanon and wounded 81 in the past 24 hours.
The Israeli military said it struck 75 sites overnight across southern and eastern Lebanon. It said at least 45 projectiles were fired from Lebanon early Thursday, all of which were intercepted or fell in open areas.
What is the situation on the border?
The Israel-Lebanon border has seen almost daily exchanges since the Israel-Hamas war began on Oct. 7, killing more than 1,500 people in Lebanon, and about 50 soldiers and civilians in Israel. Tens of thousands of people have been displaced on both sides of the border.
Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah promised to retaliate for the electronic device bombings. But the group is trying to balance stretching the rules of engagement by hitting deeper into Israel in response to its attacks, while avoiding large-scale attacks on civilian areas that could trigger a full-scale war.
Nasrallah said the barrages will continue — and Israelis won’t be able to return to their homes in the north — until Israel’s campaign in Gaza ends.
What is being done to end the conflict?
The United States, France and other allies jointly called for an “immediate” 21-day cease-fire in the conflict to “provide space for diplomacy.” The announcement Wednesday came amid growing fears that the violence could become an all-out war between Israel and Hezbollah, which would further destabilize a region already shaken by the war in Gaza.
U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres on Thursday urged the two sides to “step back from the brink.”
But Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Israel would keep striking Hezbollah “with full force. And we will not stop until we reach all our goals, chief among them the return of the residents of the north securely to their homes. ” Netanyahu spoke as he landed in New York, where he is scheduled to address the U.N. General Assembly on Friday.
Hezbollah has said it cannot halt its strikes on Israel unless there is a cease-fire in the conflict in Gaza between Israel and Hamas, it’s regional ally.
Netanyahu would almost certainly lose his parliamentary majority if he agreed to this demand.
What is Israel planning?
Israeli officials have hinted heavily that they could expand military operations against Hezbollah.
The head of Israel’s Northern Command has been quoted in local media advocating for a ground invasion of Lebanon, and the Israeli army chief, LT. Gen. Herzi Halevi, told troops stationed on the northern border Wednesday that ongoing air strikes were “to prepare the ground for your possible entry and to continue degrading Hezbollah.”
Meanwhile, as fighting in Gaza slowed, Israel increased its forces along the Lebanese border, including the arrival of a powerful army division believed to include thousands of troops. On Wednesday, Israel announced it would further deploy two reserve brigades for missions in the north, and on Thursday The Associated Press saw the Israeli military transporting tanks and armored vehicles toward the northern border.
What would be the impact of a full-blown war?
A new war could be even worse than the one in 2006, which was traumatic enough to serve as a deterrent for both sides ever since. That fighting killed hundreds of Hezbollah fighters and an estimated 1,100 Lebanese civilians, and left large swaths of the south and parts of Beirut in ruins. More than 120 Israeli soldiers were killed and hundreds were wounded. Hezbollah missile fire on Israeli cities killed dozens of civilians.
Israel estimates that Hezbollah possesses about 150,000 rockets and missiles, some of which are precision-guided, putting the entire country within range. Israel has beefed up its air defenses, but it’s unclear whether it can defend against the intense barrages of a new war.
Israel says it could turn southern Lebanon into a battle zone, saying Hezbollah has embedded rockets, weapons and forces along the border. And in the heightened rhetoric of the past months, Israeli politicians have spoken of inflicting the same damage in Lebanon that the military has wreaked in Gaza.
By LEE KEATH
Associated Press
