New report says Russia is better able to withstand heavy battlefield losses than Ukraine

LONDON (AP) — Russia’s stockpiles of Cold War-era weapons and larger population have allowed it to withstand heavy battlefield losses in Ukraine as the West fails to provide Ukraine the aid needed to mount a counteroffensive, according to an annual review of the global military situation.

While Russia lost 1,400 tanks last year and has seen an estimated 800,000 soldiers killed or wounded since its full-scale invasion of Ukraine began some three years ago, Moscow has been able to keep its forces up to strength, the International Institute for Strategic Studies said in the report released Wednesday. The same isn’t true for Ukraine, which has suffered a “serious drain on its personnel,” though no reliable figures exist on such losses because of its sensitive political nature.

“The pledged Western military supplies appear insufficient to enable a sustained Ukrainian counteroffensive,” IISS said. “While Ukraine has proved its ability to resist Russia’s invasion in the air, land and maritime domains, it has found it difficult to mobilize sufficient troops to keep pace with its casualties.”

Some observers, including U.S. President Donald Trump, see an opportunity for a peace deal in the grinding war of attrition, which is weakening Russia’s economy. National Security Adviser Mike Waltz said last weekend that Trump was prepared “to tax, to tariff, to sanction” to bring Russian President Vladimir Putin to the negotiating table.

But Nigel Gould-Davies, senior fellow for Eurasia and Russia at IISS and a former British ambassador to Belarus, discounted the chances for a ceasefire.

“The most important underlying fact is Russia’s and specifically Putin’s clearly stated determination to continue the war,’’ Gould-Davies said. “And in particular … the clarity with which Putin on several occasions, even in the past couple of months, has said he’s not interested in a ceasefire, he’s not interested in a freeze in the conflict. He’s only been interested in a full and final end to the war, which would require the resolution of a wide range of difficult international political, legal and bureaucratic issues.”

As the war in Ukraine drags on, conflict flares in the Middle East and China takes an increasingly assertive stance in Asia, countries around the world are rebuilding military stockpiles that were allowed to decline after the Cold War.

Global defense spending jumped to $2.46 trillion last year, an increase of 7.4% after inflation, according to IISS, a London-based think tank that has produced its annual report on the balance of military power for the past 65 years.

Russia increased defense spending by 41.9% to the equivalent of $145.9 billion, dwarfing the $28.4 billion spent by Ukraine but close to total European defense spending. Moscow is now spending about 6.7% of its economic output on defense, compared with 3.6% before the invasion of Ukraine.

While stockpiles of armor and artillery have allowed Russia to keep pace with battlefield losses, that may become more difficult over time.

Putin has restrained the mobilization of troops to maintain support for the war, which is fueling inflation in Russia and draining funds from social programs such as education and healthcare, IISS said. In addition, remaining weapons stockpiles are likely to need costly refurbishment before they can be used on the battlefield.

“The present course is unsustainable,’’ Gould-Davies said. “But that’s not to say something is unsustainable in the shorter term.”

Concern about Russian aggression has led many NATO countries to increase their own defenses.

European countries boosted military spending by 11.7% last year, driven by a 23.2% increase in Germany, IISS said. Even so, German defense spending equaled 1.8% of economic output, below the 2% target for members of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

Trump has repeatedly criticized other members of the military alliance for failing to pay their fair share of the collective defense bill.

Total NATO defense spending rose to $1.44 trillion last year, with $442 billion, or less than a third, coming from the bloc’s European members, IISS said.

By DANICA KIRKA
Associated Press