Remember that game a month ago in which Oregon and UCLA combined for 10 turnovers, the most in the Football Bowl Subdivision in four years?
Well, that was quite an anomoly. FBS teams are taking care of the ball better than they have through the 10th week of a season in at least a quarter century, underscoring a general lack of what often can be game-changing plays.
The average of 2.2 giveaways per game and interception rate of 2.3% are the lowest at this point in a season since at least 2000, according to Sportradar. The fumble rate of 1.8% is also the lowest, though Sportradar data dates only to 2013.
Teams of note this year are Nebraska, which has yet to lose a fumble, and South Florida, which hasn’t thrown an interception. Notre Dame has just one fumble and one interception.
The picks, with AP rankings and betting lines. All games are on Saturday unless noted:
Missouri at No. 1 Georgia (minus 15 1/2)
Bulldogs are playing their best on both sides of the ball right now and Missouri’s bread-and-butter run game has struggled against strong defenses lately.
Pick: Georgia 35-17.
No. 2 Utah (minus 2 1/2) at No. 22 Arizona
Best quarterback matchup of the day with Utah’s Devon Dampier against Noah Fifita. Wildcats are unbeaten at home and must win to stay in the Big 12 race.
Pick: Utah 24-21.
Boston College at No. 3 Notre Dame (minus 29)
Fighting Irish are feeling their oats after dispatching top-ranked Miami last week and Boston College isn’t making progress under third-year coach Bill O’Brien.
Pick: Notre Dame 40-10.
Illinois (plus 10) at No. 4 UCLA
UCLA keeps chugging along in Bob Chesney’s first year and won’t stop Friday against an Illini team that’s won four straight.
Pick: UCLA 28-21.
Duke (plus 13) at No. 5 Miami
Miami QB Darian Mensah faces his former team and will go against the ACC’s top defense. Hurricanes will have their hands full with Duke RB Nate Sheppard.
Pick: Miami 26-23.
No. 15 Southern California (plus 7 1/2) at No. 6 Indiana
Hoosiers have had to ride their stout defense while the offense has dawdled the last month. Trojans’ hopes rest on Jayden Maiava’s arm and an improving defense.
Pick: Indiana 24-20.
No. 7 Alabama (minus 15 1/2) at Vanderbilt
Kalen DeBoer proceeds cautiously when it comes to Vanderbilt, which upset the Tide as a 23 1/2-point underdog two years ago. Alabama won 30-14 last year, but it was a six-point game with less than five minutes to play.
Pick: Alabama 38-14.
No. 8 Texas (plus 4) at No. 24 LSU
Texas is rolling and 4-0 against Top 25 opponents, so it raised eyebrows when the Longhorns opened as underdogs. Could be because LSU’s pass rush is elite and Arch Manning gets sacked on nearly 1 of every 10 pass plays.
Pick: LSU 28-27.
No. 9 Tennessee (minus 2 1/2) at Texas A&M
Volunteers’ defense just got done holding Kentucky to six points, and the Aggies’ offense has been a mess most weeks against SEC opponents.
Pick: Tennessee 20-14.
No. 10 Texas Tech at Oklahoma State (minus 3 1/2)
The over-under is 72 1/2 points, which actually seems a little low the way these two teams have been putting up points.
Pick: Oklahoma State 48-42.
No. 11 Wake Forest (minus 1) at No. 25 SMU
High-stakes game for two teams likely battling for spots in the ACC championship game. Both teams can pile up yards and points, but the Demon Deacons have the better defense.
Pick: Wake Forest 31-27.
Baylor (plus 7) at No. 12 BYU
Bears are 2-0 under interim coach Joe Klanderman as they begin tough closing stretch against three ranked opponents. BYU has lost two of three.
Pick: BYU 24-19.
Florida at No. 13 Kentucky (minus 3 1/2)
Gators have lost four of five and Kentucky can’t afford another loss if it wants to make a first playoff appearance.
Pick: Kentucky 26-21.
No. 14 Houston (minus 9 1/2) at Colorado
Is Colorado’s desire to win out and make a bowl as strong as Houston’s wish to claw its way into the Big 12 championship game (albeit with help from other teams)? We’ll find out Friday.
Pick: Houston 42-14.
Purdue (plus 17) at No. 16 Iowa
Boilermakers coach Barry Odom fired defensive coordinator Kevin Kane and by midweek hadn’t said who would be in charge. Hawkeyes’ nickel-and-diming offense is a tough first assignment.
Pick: Iowa 32-21.
Oregon State (plus 13 1/2) at No. 17 Boise State
A couple high-powered offenses go at it on the blue turf. Beavers freshman star WR Jesse Legree has has been held under 100 yards two straight games.
Pick: Boise State 37-34.
Michigan at No. 18 Oregon (minus 11)
Ducks suddenly find themselves back in the playoff hunt after their impressive win at Ohio State. Uncertainty at quarterback is a huge issue for Wolverines.
Pick: Oregon 28-14.
No. 19 Mississippi (minus 1) at Oklahoma
Rebels are reeling after the thrashing they took from Georgia, and they’ll be without RB Kewan Lacy a third straight game. Sooners offense started showing some life against Florida last week.
Pick: Mississippi 21-20.
No. 20 South Carolina at Arkansas (plus 7 1/2)
LaNorris Sellers has led Gamecocks to four straight wins, but the SEC’s top rushing QB could be limited after hurting his ankle last week.
Pick: South Carolina 26-21.
Northwestern at No. 21 Ohio State (minus 12 1/2)
Buckeyes defense needs to make a stand after giving up a combined 71 points in consecutive losses to USC and Oregon.
Pick: Ohio State 30-16.
UNLV (plus 14 1/2) at No. 23 New Mexico
UNLV coach Dan Mullen has a quarterback dilemma after he benched Jackson Arnold for Alex Orji in a loss to Wyoming last week. Lobos’ defense is FBS co-leader with 17 interceptions.
Pick: New Mexico 31-23.
AP predictions scorecard
Last week: Straight-up — 11-5; Against spread — 7-9.
Season: Straight-up — 124-49; Against spread — 85-86-2.
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By ERIC OLSON
AP College Football Writer
